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Not the water, dummy

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 24 Jul 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

The State of North Carolina has been considering confiscating a privately owned hydroelectric dam on the Yadkin River over the past several weeks. The plant was constructed by Alcoa and uses the natural energy of the river current to generate electricity, primarily to serve the needs of Alcoa’s nearby facilities so that the company is not obligated to purchase power from coal-fired power plants.

Last week, the General Assembly recommended to its Environmental Review Commission that it review the options related to the Alcoa hydroelectric plant. I just came across an article that has this to say about the “recapture” or condemnation option:

The options open for the Commission to study and recommend to the legislature include recapture of the license and restoring a natural resource of the state for hydroelectric power to benefit North Carolina citizens. The recapture option would not take private property away from Alcoa, as the company does not own the water from the Yadkin and has only had a lease on its dam operations for the past 50 years.

Clearly, no one is claiming to own the water in the Yadkin River. This would be impossible. The water that is in the river changes on a daily basis as it flows back toward the ocean. It is the capital investment of the hydroelectric facility that is clearly the private property of Alcoa and which the state is seeking to confiscate. This is the technological improvement on the river that translates the river’s current into useful energy for human production. Claims such as this are clear distortions of the facts.

Moreover, Alcoa’s plant already does benefit North Carolina citizens. If Alcoa was not able to use the electricity generated by the plant, it would have to purchase that power off of the public electric grid, lowering the amount of electricity available on the grid. This increasing strain on the grid would prompt public utility companies to build more power plants and drive up the price of electricity for everyone. It’s ridiculous to suggest that North Carolinians would benefit more or less depending on who owns and operates the Yadkin River hydroelectric plant.

The Wind/Solar vs. Oil Myth

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 24 Jul 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

Here’s yet another article in which North Carolinians are confusing “renewable” electricity sources with fuel.  Wind and solar power are electricity sources - they can do almost nothing to replace the need for petroleum.

TVA lawsuit ongoing

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 24 Jul 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

NC Attorney General Roy Cooper’s lawsuit against the Tennessee Valley Authority is ongoing in Asheville.  After seven days of testimony by Cooper’s office, officials for TVA took the stand yesterday and testified that coal-fired power plants operated by the TVA generated 30 to 40 percent more electricity than coal-fired power plants in North Carolina from 2005 to 2007 while releasing about the same level of emissions.  It’s interesting to note the difference in content and tone of articles about this suit published in the Tennessean and the Asheville Citizen-Times.

Poll–North Carolinians overwhelmingly opposed to paying higher energy prices to fight global warming

Posted by Roy Cordato on 24 Jul 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

Here are the results of four questions asked in the latest statewide poll conducted by The John William Pope Civitas Institute
. What is particularly interesting is that even among those who said they’d be willing to pay more for gasoline and electricity, a clear minority of the total number polled, commitment to the cause is very low, with a plurality in each case saying that they’d be only willing to pay an additional 5% or less and overwhelming majorities saying that they would not be willing to pay more than an additional 10%. This is in spite of the massive propaganda campaign that is currently being waged on radio and TV.

Here are the questions and results. The first number is the raw poll numbers the second is the percentage of the total:

In the next one to two years, the state of North Carolina will likely consider legislation to address what many perceive as the problem of global warming. Would you favor such legislation if it resulted in the following: higher gasoline prices?

Yes 167 28
No 383 64
Not Sure 46 8
Refused 4

How much more would you be willing to pay?

5% or Less 68 41
5-10% 41 25
11-20% 12 7
21-30% 7 4
Over 30% 9 5
Not Sure 29 17
Refused 2

Higher electricity rates?

Yes 158 26
No 382 64
Not Sure 58 10
Refused 2

How much more would you be willing to pay?

5% or Less 76 48
5-10% 40 26
11-20% 17 11
21-30% 2 1
Over 30% 9 6
Not Sure 14 9
Refused

Revkin discredits Gore

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 17 Jul 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

The NY Times ran a great article today in which Andy Revkin completely discredits Al Gore’s most recent speech Washington.

It’s Never Enough

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 24 Jun 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

The N&O ran a story today about NC WARN’s (Waste Awareness and Reduction Network) recent effort to raise the conservation mandate on Duke Energy well above what is required by the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS) that passed last year. That law requires utility companies to reduce energy production by 5 percent.

To avoid shortages of electricity, the utility companies offset this production quota by providing financial incentives to induce customers into making different choices about their energy use. These incentives can include subsidies for the purchase of relatively energy-efficient appliances and are funded through higher electricity rates.

However, NC WARN claims that the quota is not low enough - utilities should constrict energy production even more than the law requires. They are calling for Duke Energy to reduce its production of electricity by 19 percent. This, they claim, would eliminate the need for new power plants.

In fact, it is possible that NC WARN may get their wish. The Utilities Commission will soon hear testimony from NC WARN and decide whether, on the basis of their testimony, to deny Duke the ability to build new power plants.

Requiring Duke to reduce production by 19 percent would obviously create a much larger shortage than a 5 percent reduction. It would likely strain Duke’s resources to be able to offset this shortage with “energy efficiency programs.” In fact, that is exactly what Duke is saying.

NC WARN points to California’s 33 percent REPS as an example of what can be done in North Carolina. However, utility officials have rightfully pointed out that “ruling out new power plants would wreak havoc on state electricity supply, as has happened in California and the Northeast.” This, of course, would be the point of lowering the production quota - to wreak havoc on supply, creating an artificial shortage.

In an industry subject to market forces, the inevitable result of a shortage would be an increase in the price. Since prices in the electric power industry are set by a central authority, however, they would not be allowed to adjust with the declining supply of electricity. In spite of this, there should be no assumption that “conservation” advocates want to ensure that customers have access to cheap energy. They view access to cheap energy as a fundamental problem. The following quote is taken from today’s N&O article:

For decades, the state’s appetite for cheap electricity has grown unchecked. New residents have favored spacious homes that suck up power to run PCs, entertainment centers and plasma-screen televisions. A typical North Carolina resident burns through more electricity each year than a power customer uses in most other states.

Efficiency advocates are convinced that if Progress Energy and Duke Energy paid customers generously to conserve, statewide electricity use would stay flat, even with North Carolina’s relentless population growth.

The point of placing a quota on energy production would presumably be to control the choices that North Carolinians make about how they live. In this paradigm, cheap energy is viewed as the root of all evil because it allows people to “run PCs, entertainment centers, and plasma-screen televisions (which, coincidentally, use less energy than projection televisions).” In other words, the cost of energy should be so prohibitive that North Carolinians are forced into lower standards of living. The article continues:

Complicating the picture are North Carolina’s electricity rates, among the cheapest in the nation. The cheaper the cost of power, the less likely that people will pay extra for high-efficiency appliances and other energy-saving upgrades, regardless of the financial incentives utilities offer.

When “conservation” is discussed as an energy policy, it should be clear what is being considered. “Conservation” means artificial shortages, energy rationing, lower standards of living, a shrinking economy, and higher unemployment. It also means a loss of individual freedom, with North Carolinians ceding their decision-making abilities to a central authority.

To make matters worse, there is no clear reason for why energy production should be restricted to begin with. Duke Energy is trying to build a clean, reliable nuclear power plant that will produce zero emissions. Yet, “conservationists” want the project stopped. They intend to create an artificial energy shortage that cannot even claim to have any environmental benefit. Clearly, “conservation” should never be considered a viable energy policy in North Carolina. North Carolina should instead pursue access to abundant supplies of reliable and affordable energy sources.

Gore putting brakes on Hot Air Tour?

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 20 Jun 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

Americans for Prosperity (AFP) has been conducting a state-by-state Hot Air Tour over the past few months. The purpose of the tour is to call attention to the what climate change legislation means for ordinary Americans: “Lost Jobs, Higher Taxes, Less Freedom.”

It is being called the “Hot Air Tour” because advocates of these policies are using the “threat” of climate change as a front to push a hidden agenda of expanding government control over the economy and individual freedom. This they do in spite of being certain that the proposed policies would have no appreciable effect on global average temperature. They would, however, lead to massive job losses.

Today, AFP was expected to launch their hot air balloon (the centerpiece of the Tour) to kick off the Nashville, TN leg of the tour. However, the Nashville Parks Department shut down the balloon launch this morning. AFP had filed the necessary permits beforehand, but the Parks Department cited a loophole. Here is what AFP Director of Policy Phil Kerpen had to say (first reported by my colleague Paul Chesser):

The Nashville Parks Department is denying us permission to launch the balloon, citing the fact that our permit says balloon rides but not specifically the word “launch.” This despite the fact that we have explained to them on the phone multiple times our precise flight plan and before today there was no indication that there was a problem or any defect in our permit. Clearly, Gore is calling in favors to stop the embarrassing visual and negative coverage surrounding our event and ratcheting up the beating he is taking over his home energy use.

NC, NJ, and CA governors support high gas prices

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 20 Jun 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

North Carolina is among three states whose governors have said they support the economic slowdown caused by rising gas prices. Average gas prices are now hovering around $4.00/gallon nationally and will likely continue to increase with the rising global demand for oil.

While a switch to renewable energy sources has been touted by some as the way to control gas prices, there has been much confusion over this issue. For most applications, “renewable” sources such as wind or solar power can do nothing to replace the need for petroleum. Petroleum is a fuel - not an electricity source. It can only be replaced by other fuels. However, biofuel technologies are still significantly more expensive (and less efficient) than gasoline.

Hence, the only realistic solution to lowering gas prices is to increase the supply. This would mean opening up the United States’ vast oil resources to production. (This would have the added benefit of reducing American dependence on oil imports from politically volatile regions.)

The US Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management recently found that only 8 percent of oil under onshore federal land is open to drilling under normal leasing terms while 31 billion barrels of federal onshore oil (62 percent) are closed to drilling altogether. Meanwhile, the Minerals Management Service has estimated that there are 115.43 billion barrels of oil on the Outer Continental Shelves of the United States. A federal moratorium on offshore drilling prevents these resources from being developed. RAND further estimates that there are 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil (using current technology) in the shale of the Green River Formation in the Western United States.

There has been recent discussion among some policymakers of ending the federal moratorium on offshore drilling and allowing states to decide whether they will permit offshore drilling. However, Governors Easley (NC), Schwarzenegger (CA), and Corzine (NJ) have already voiced opposition to lower gas prices (and the ensuing increase in real wealth).

Governor Corzine cites New Jersey’s need to protect its tourism industry from the view of drilling platforms which would be so far out that they would not be visible. He says, “Our $35 billion economy is driven by tourism and the use of the shore.” This is from the guy who supports making New Jersey’s biggest tourist destination, Atlantic City, look like this.

Governor Easley cited similar reasons saying, “It’s too much squeeze for the juice when you look at real estate on the coast, recreational fishing and tourism that could be adversely affected by some problem.” Yet, Governor Easley signed a Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard into law last year. This law will almost certainly do that exact same thing to North Carolina’s coastline.

Apparently, noisy 500-foot wind turbines that produce no useful electricity are better for tourism than drilling platforms that would be miles off of the coast. Apparently, raising electricity prices in lieu of lowering gas prices will be better for the North Carolina economy. That’s what ASU’s recent modeling of climate change legislation portends to be true.

In reality, however, the economic well-being of North Carolina and every other state is dependent on access to reliable and inexpensive energy sources. A move towards expensive energy will cause real people in North Carolina to lose real jobs. Expanding the supply of relatively inexpensive energy - thereby lowering its cost - would be a boon to North Carolina. I wonder where the Governor’s true allegiances lie.

Solar pricing forecasts are unrealistic

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 17 Jun 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

Last year during the SB3 negotiations, the “stakeholder” group decided to include a specific carve-out for solar energy. To this end, the North Carolina Utilities Commission requested its consultant to model the projected costs of a renewable portfolio standard that included a solar component.

The model they developed included scenarios in which the price of solar power (the most expensive form of electricity production) declined by 25, 50, and 75 percent by year 2021.

These projections likely made the solar set-aside more palatable to consumer groups. However, they have little basis in reality. The primary chemical input into production of solar panels is polysilicon - the same chemical that is used to manufacture microprocessors.

Limited supplies of this chemical are resulting in a global shortage as more of the chemical is demanded for solar panel production. As a result, the price has increased from $20 per kilogram to $300 per kilogram over the past five years and continues to rise. The solar panel industry has grown into a major competitor with microprocessor manufacturers for this resource and is starting to bid polysilicon away from microprocessor manufacturers. Government mandates for solar power will undoubtedly cause this trend to accelerate.

The scarcity of polysilicon - an economic reality - has two major implications. The first is that government mandates will force an ever-increasing trade-off between solar panels and microprocessors. To assume that humanity will benefit more from solar panels than from microprocessors is very presumptuous to say the least. In fact, the market demonstrates that, absent government mandates, people have a much higher relative demand for microprocessors - indicating that people derive much more utility from this use of polysilicon. Indeed, if this were not the case, there would be no need for government mandates to allocate the use of polysilicon to solar panel production.

A second major implication of polysilicon scarcity is that regardless of technology advances in the solar industry, the cost for solar power could remain elevated well above the cost of power generated through other resources. That would really blow out all of the assumptions about price declines in the solar industry that policymakers have made.

The principle of scarcity underlies the entire study of economics. Yet, it apparently eludes many government-funded “economic impact” studies. I guess they have different textbooks.

Duke’s newest solar initiative

Posted by Geoff Lawrence on 11 Jun 2008 | Tagged as: Uncategorized

Duke Energy is seeking to begin work on a project to install solar panels on up to 850 houses and businesses within their service area over the next two years.  The project is reported to cost $100 million and will generate 16 mW of electricity (when solar conditions are right).

The costs of this initiative will add about 25 cents per month to the average power bill for all Duke customers.

This project is in addition to the recently announced joint venture with SunEdison to build the nation’s largest solar power plant in Davidson County.  That plant would also generate 16mW of electricity (again, when solar conditions are right).

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